The 60 events that could rattle stock markets and investors in the months ahead: Nomura
Whether you’re just not the type to take comfort in a round of new all-time stock-market highs or you like to see a sturdy wall of worry for markets to climb, this chart put together by analysts at Nomura might be for you.
According to a recent note from the bank’s global foreign-exchange strategists, the next few months offer no less than 60 events that need to be priced into markets.
“It has been a strange summer, especially with Turkey added to the growing list of rolling volatility events this year. Well the summer sun is nearly over and September holds a host of events risks to watch out for,” wrote analysts led by Jordan Rochester.
Here’s their handy chart:
As for immediate worries, they say watch for the U.K. parliament to return from summer recess on Sept. 4 to start dealing with the government’s Brexit plan, which is still in doubt as many wonder if the country will exit the European Union without a trade deal next year. Here’s Nomura’s separate U.K. event-risk timeline that lays out all the coming big moments on the road to exit day next March:
Then there’s the U.S., where the Trump administration drew some cheers over its tentative trade deal with Mexico, leaving the S&P 500 SPX, +0.03% and Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.15% to notch a second consecutive pair of all-time highs on Tuesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.06% neared its own record.
But a completed review of China tariffs and the auto sector is expected Sept. 6, which could start freshly rattling the trade cages. And a U.S. government shutdown risk looms for Sept 28.
In Europe, Italy I945, -0.85% is due to submit its budget Oct. 15 to the European Union. Worries surrounding that process having already served to rattle investors recently—the FTSEMIB Italy index I945, -0.85% is down over 6% for August so far.
Pius: Trade-war tracker: Here are the new levies, imposed and threatened
Beyond the here and now, as that swirling green chart shows, the U.S. midterm elections take place Nov. 6, while farther afield, elections are coming up for countries such as Sweden, Brazil and India as well.
Looking ahead, the investigation into potential collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia ahead of the 2016 election has picked up pace, while “Nafta remains uncertain; the U.S. Treasury’s semiannual FX report may focus more on China, while sanctions on Iran from November come into full effect,” said the strategists.
Rolling toward 2019, global markets may also cast an eye at Europe and potential replacements for European Central Bank President Mario Draghi as jockeying to replace him when his term expires in October 2019 intensifies. Also, Bank of England Gov. Mark Carney is due to leave office in June 2019. And by September next year, the possible “liftoff” for ECB rates may just swing back into focus, says Nomura.
“Our view on rates remains unchanged: we expect a first rise in the depo rate (by 15bp) in September 2019 with a further 20bp of rate rises in two installments over the subsequent nine months,” the analysts said.
What else is there to look forward to? Maybe another U.S./North Korean summit by September next year, say the Nomura analysts, that is if you’ve not been completely exhausted by the above.
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