Election polls: Sinn Féin extend polling dominance ahead of Northern Ireland vote

Sinn Fein warns Boris to prepare for the break-up of UK

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Later this week, we will know which party has overall control of the Northern Ireland General Assembly and wields significant input during Brexit negotiations between the UK and European Union (EU). At present, that power belongs to the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), though many pollsters are expecting this responsibility to soon fall into the hands of Sinn Féin.

What are the polls predicting?

The Irish Times reported a new opinion poll in Northern Ireland has shown Sinn Féin has grown its favour with the public, now standing at a score of 26.6 percent.

The figure is significantly ahead of their rivals the DUP who are tied for the second spot with the Alliance Party.

Both political entities are currently sitting on a poll rating of 18.2 percent.

A win for Sinn Féin could have significant knock-on effects for Brexit negotiations with the party in support of the existing Northern Ireland protocol.

In contrast, the DUP have aggressively fought to have the legislation removed, stating it has separated the country from the UK and brought it closer to the EU.

Though a win for Sinn Féin would be historic, it wouldn’t necessarily mean much change for Northern Ireland’s governance due to the Northern Ireland Act of 1998.

The law transferred governance from Westminster to Stormont on the basis that the country would function as a power-sharing democracy, which would likely be between Sinn Féin and the DUP.

Elsewhere, local elections will be taking place on the same day across England, Wales and Scotland.

Pollster Find Out Now and election experts Electoral Calculus have predicted an overall swing of five percent to Labour away from the Tories, in England and Wales.

In fact, Sir Keir Starmer’s party is poised to end the local elections with 22 more councils under a Labour administration compared with what they currently have.

These are predicted to include a number which they previously had no overall control of or those working as a coalition.

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The pollsters named Barnet, Harlow, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Southampton and Wandsworth as potential councils that might move from Tory to Labour.

At the same time, the Tories are predicted to lose as many as 800 councillors to rival parties.

However, despite this, the Conservatives are not expected to make a net loss in terms of the number of councils they control.

Instead, they’re anticipated to end the election still in control of 46 councils.

The emergence of the partygate scandal is expected to harm electoral support for Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Tories.

Indeed, political analysts will be eagerly awaiting results which should paint an accurate picture of voting intention ahead of 2024’s General Election.

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