Rebecca Long-Bailey ahead of Keir Starmer in new Labour leadership members poll

Rebecca Long-Bailey has nudged ahead of Keir Starmer in the Labour leadership race, according to a new poll.

The survey of members of the website LabourList who are also members of the party showed the Shadow Business Secretary ahead of her opponents with 42% of first preferences.

The poll put Keir Starmer in second place, with 37% – while Jess Phillips is in a distant third place with 9%.

Lisa Nandy was in fourth place on 7%, with Shadow Foreign Secretary Emily Thornberry in last place on 1%.

Pollster Survation conducted the poll, which LabourList say has been reflected to reflect the membership.

But it doesn't include registered affiliates or supporters who pay £25 to vote in the contest.

Mr Starmer's share of the vote increases once second preferences are taken into account, but not enough to overtake Ms Long-Bailey.

The poll suggests a second round vote, if taken tomorrow, would see Ms Long-Bailey defeat Mr Starmer 51% to 49%.


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But, perhaps crucially, some 34% of respondents said they had not made up their mind on who to vote for in the contest – and just 22% of those who gave an ranking of candidates said they were certain they would not change their minds.

A YouGov poll of Labour members last week showed Mr Starmer in first place both on first preferences and in the final vote.

From 5pm Tuesday 14 January to 5pm Thursday 16 January, people who are not full members of the party or affiliated trade unions can sign up to be 'registered supporters'.

That entitles them to a vote in the contest when polling opens next month. But it comes at a cost – £25 for each registered supporter.

Members and union affiliates will have until 5pm on Monday 20 January to sign up for a ballot.


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The rule is the same one that was used in 2016, when more than 180,000 registered supporters applied in two days.

The ballot opens on Friday 21 February and closes at 12pm on Thursday 2 April.

And the winner of the contest will be announced on Saturday 4 April.

With many Corbyn supporters now full paid-up members, there has been a push from centrists who quit the party to rejoin in order to support candidates like Jess Phillips.

Candidates now need to get the backing of either 5% of constituency parties or 5% of affiliates (trade unions, socialist and co-operative parties).

Those who get onto the ballot paper will then face a vote by full members, union affiliates and registered supporters.

The LabourList/Survation poll surveyed 3,835 LabourList members who are also members of the Labour Party between 8th and 13th January 2020.

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