Survey by Biden and Trump 2020 pollsters suggests close contest in potential 2024 rematch

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Former President Donald Trump constantly teases making another White House run in 2024.

And President Biden has said both publicly and privately that he plans to seek a second term in the White House.

So, what would a potential Biden-Trump 2024 general election showdown look like? A national poll released last week by the Wall Street Journal gives a glimpse, suggesting Biden with 46% support and Trump at 45%. Biden’s one point edge was well within the survey’s sampling error.

Forty-six percent of voters questioned in the poll, which was conducted Nov. 16-22, said they would continue the current president’s policy course, while 48% say they’d rather return the polices Trump pushed during his four years in the White House.

Donald Trump speaks as Joe Biden listens during the first 2020 general election presidential debate in Cleveland, Ohio, on Sept. 29, 2020.
(Kevin Dietsch/UPI/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

The results come amid an ongoing five-month slide in the president’s poll numbers by an American public increasingly dissatisfied with the state of the nation. But Biden’s doldrums don’t appear to be giving Trump much of a boost in the possible 2024 matchup. 

That likely points to the former president’s potential vulnerabilities with a general election electorate should he run again. Trump’s net favorable rating in the survey stands at negative 13, two points lower than Biden’s.

While any poll taken nearly three years before an election needs to be sampled with plenty of skepticism, what makes the new survey interesting is that it’s the Wall Street Journal’s first under its new polling operation led by Tony Fabrizio, the longtime Republican pollster who conducted surveys for Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns, and by veteran Democratic pollster John Anzalone, who conducted surveys for Biden’s 2020 campaign.

Going past the top-lines, Fabrizio noted that “Trump is winning independents and Biden and Trump are effectively tied among Hispanics.”

The pollster told Fox News that “both of those things are warning signs for Biden since he won independents and Hispanics by a significant amount in the last election.” 

While he acknowledged that “there’s no question that Trump is still a polarizing figure,” Fabrizio added that “Biden has become equally polarizing.”

Pence’s jam-packed day in New Hampshire

Former Vice President Mike Pence returned on Wednesday to New Hampshire, the state that for a century has held the first primary in the race for the White House.

While the main mission of the former vice president’s trip was to support fellow Republicans running in the 2022 elections, the visit ignited more speculation that Pence is starting to gear up for a likely 2024 run for the White House.

His busy itinerary – with all the trappings of a presidential campaign swing – included a meeting with the New Hampshire Federation of Republican Women, and mingling with GOP lawmakers and officials, and patrons during a retail stop at a bakery run by a Republican activist. He then took aim at President Biden’s agenda as he headlined a Heritage Action “Save Our Paychecks” event, and later greeted members of the New Hampshire Home Builders Association, at an iconic outdoor New England holiday setting. He capped his trip by keynoting a fundraiser for the New Hampshire Senate Republicans.

Former Vice President Mike Pence headlines a Heritage Action "Save our Paychecks" political event in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Dec. 8, 2021.
(Fox News)

Pence, a former congressman and governor of Indiana, has been tireless so far this year in traveling across the country to help the GOP win back majorities in the House and Senate and pick up more governorships in the 2022 elections. 

Asked during an interview with Fox News if Trump’s repeated re-litigating of his 2020 election loss to Biden is helpful as the GOP ramps up for the 2022 midterms by targeting the current president’s agenda, Pence didn’t criticize his former boss. 

But he stressed that “Elections are always about the future.”

“Here in New Hampshire, and as I travel around the country, looking at the failed policies of the Biden administration, now more than ever I think we need to focus on the historic opportunity that we have to win back the Congress, to win statehouses, to elect conservative governors around the country,” he noted.

Pence’s travels across the country this year have taken him to the first four states that vote in the race for the White House. The stop in New Hampshire was his second this year, and he’s also made two trips year to Iowa, the state whose caucuses for half a century have kicked off the White House race. Pence also stopped this spring in South Carolina, which votes third in the GOP primary and caucus calendar, and last month in Nevada, which holds the fourth contest.

Pence is far from the only high-profile Republican mulling a presidential bid who’s grabbed attention by visiting the four early voting primary and caucus states. And Trump repeatedly teases making another run in 2024.

Asked whether his decision on a White House bid would be dependent on Trump’s own 2024 plans, Pence didn’t directly answer. Instead, he said “I’m completely focused on 2022. And come 2023, we’ll do as our family has always done. We’ll reflect and pray and consider where we might next serve.”

Trump couldn’t resist a chance to ding Pence, who earned the former president’s rath his Jan. 6 certification of Biden’s 2020 Electoral College victory and while refusing the then-president’s repeated requests to overturn the results. 

While Pence was in New Hampshire, Trump put out a statement calling him a “good man,” but charged that the former vice president made a “big mistake on not recognizing the massive voter fraud and irregularities.”

Bakery that may become a must stop for 2024 Republicans

It was no surprise that Pence made the Simply Delicious Baking Co. his second stop during his trip.

Owner Alexa Firman and her bakery were recently featured in an ad by the Coalition to Protect American Workers, a conservative group operated by Pence’s former chief of staff, Marc Short, who remains a top adviser and accompanied the former vice president on the New Hampshire trip.

Former Vice President Mike Pence speaks with the owners of Simply Delicious Baking Co., on Dec. 8, 2021, in Bedford, New Hampshire.
(Fox News )

“Rising inflation costs are real threat to my business,” Firman said in the spot, which takes aim at President Joe Biden’s spending bills. 

“The wasteful spending in Washington has sent inflation through the roof,” Firman charges. “This terrible bill will hurt small businesses like mine.”

Pence isn’t the first potential 2024 Republican presidential contender to pay a visit to the bakery, which Firman opened in 2019. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas stopped by the eatery in October of last year as he campaigned with 2020 GOP congressional candidate Matt Mowers, who’s now making a second straight bid for New Hampshire’s First Congressional District.

Simply Delicious has also made headlines separate from its standing as a frequent stop for Republican politicians and activists. The bakery was fined a year ago for violating New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu’s emergency order requiring face masks amid the coronavirus, the worst pandemic to sweep the globe in century.

Fox News Paul Celeste contributed to this report

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