After a year of fretting about President Biden\u2019s political standing and their electoral chances in 2024, Democrats are at a moment of high confidence as Republicans prepare for their first presidential debate on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
They will be watching with bated breath in hopes that the Republican candidates embrace the likely-to-be-absent Donald J. Trump, defend him over his four criminal indictments, endorse national restrictions on abortion and \u2014 in the Democrats\u2019 dream scenario \u2014 call for cuts to Social Security and Medicare.<\/p>\n
Even without Mr. Trump onstage, Democrats see the Republican White House hopefuls as avatars for what they describe as a party in thrall to its extreme elements. Nobody is rooting for the debate to go off the rails more than Democrats praying for Mr. Biden\u2019s re-election.<\/p>\n
\u201cAll I want these people to do is say the same stuff they\u2019ve been saying on the campaign trail on national TV,\u201d said Jim Messina, the campaign manager for President Barack Obama\u2019s 2012 re-election bid. \u201cPlease continue to double down on a six-week abortion ban. That would be wonderful. Thank you for doing this.\u201d<\/p>\n
Mr. Biden probably won\u2019t watch the debate, a spokesman said, but odds are that his compatriots will. Here\u2019s what Democrats are looking for from the Republicans on the debate stage in Milwaukee.<\/p>\n
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last summer, Democrats have used the abortion issue to turbocharge their voters \u2014 particularly in red and purple states like Kansas, Wisconsin and, this month, Ohio.<\/p>\n
Nothing would make Democrats happier than to see Republicans embrace a national ban on abortion during a nationally televised debate. When Mr. Trump held a CNN town hall event in May, the moment that had Democrats doing cartwheels afterward was not his continued denial of the 2020 election results, but when he took a victory lap for the Supreme Court\u2019s decision.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019d like to see a huge defense of President Trump and a full-on assault on reproductive freedom and abortion,\u201d said Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey, a Democrat. \u201cTo me, that would be a gift that would keep on giving.\u201d<\/p>\n
In reality, many of the Republican candidates have tended to be more cagey about the issue.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump, at the CNN event, declined to call for a national abortion ban, and Gov. Ron DeSantis has also treaded carefully despite signing a six-week prohibition into law in Florida this year. But avoiding the subject may be tricky given former Vice President Mike Pence\u2019s enthusiastic support for limiting abortion rights.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump probably won\u2019t be at the debate, but Democrats expect nearly all of the candidates onstage to make explicit plays for his share of the Republican base \u2014 a move Democrats hope will focus attention on their own efforts to brand the entire G.O.P. as the party of MAGA.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt doesn\u2019t matter who \u2018wins\u2019 the debate on Wednesday, the MAGA Republican presidential candidates have all chosen a losing strategy that is extreme and out of touch with the American people,\u201d Michael Tyler, the communications director for Mr. Biden\u2019s campaign, wrote in memo to supporters on Friday.<\/p>\n
Mr. Biden has for months been on a mission to paint all Republicans as marching in lock step with Mr. Trump\u2019s most loyal, hard-right supporters. On Wednesday, Democrats are hoping to see Republicans engaged in stylistic efforts to attract Trump voters.<\/p>\n
\u201cI\u2019m a wrestling fan,\u201d said Jaime Harrison, the chairman of the Democratic National Committee. \u201cI\u2019m imagining a royal rumble on the debate stage, sort of a rehash of the debates in 2016 where they\u2019re talking about each other\u2019s mamas and all kinds of craziness.\u201d<\/p>\n
But one lesson that has been abundantly clear in the Trump era of politics is that no other Republican can get away with the type of outrage and public shamelessness that Mr. Trump regularly evinces.<\/p>\n
Mr. DeSantis\u2019s efforts to be a drama-free, more competent version of Mr. Trump have flopped so far. Vivek Ramaswamy, the biotech executive who has sought to portray himself as a millennial version of Trump, has risen in early polling but remains largely unknown.<\/p>\n
The biggest story about Mr. Trump is the one Mr. Biden won\u2019t talk about \u2014 the four criminal indictments the former president is facing.<\/p>\n
The problem for the Republicans running against Mr. Trump is that many of their voters agree with his belief that the cases against him are politically motivated.<\/p>\n
Democrats on the sidelines have been left waiting, to little avail, for Mr. Trump\u2019s G.O.P. rivals to make a case to their voters that the legal problems are politically disqualifying.<\/p>\n
\u201cNormally candidates would be more than happy to point out if their opponent has been indicted four times!\u201d Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota wrote in a text message. \u201cThey ARE running against him after all.\u201d<\/p>\n
That plea is unlikely to get much airtime on Wednesday. Of the candidates onstage, only former Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey \u2014 who is running an anti-Trump campaign that has won him new respect from Democrats \u2014 has made an explicit case that Mr. Trump\u2019s indictments have merit and are bad for the party.<\/p>\n
One thing the Republican candidates are all but certain to do is equate Mr. Trump\u2019s legal problems with those of Hunter Biden, the president\u2019s son, who is facing his own special counsel investigation after a plea agreement on tax and gun charges fell apart last month.<\/p>\n
Democrats aren\u2019t exactly popping popcorn for this scenario \u2014 it is an intensely painful episode for the president, and the prospect of a criminal trial isn\u2019t appealing to them \u2014 but they are confident that any detour down a Hunter Biden rabbit hole will take emphasis away from issues that moderate and independent voters care about.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf Republicans want to make this election about attacks on the president\u2019s family, it\u2019s a losing strategy,\u201d said Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, a Democrat. \u201cIt would be a mistake for them to make that an issue.\u201d<\/p>\n
Democrats widely view Mr. Trump as the easiest Republican candidate to defeat next year. Mr. Biden beat him once already, they reason, and Mr. Trump\u2019s cascading legal problems and singular ability to repel moderate Republicans and swing voters make him the one they\u2019d like to face.<\/p>\n
Mr. Trump\u2019s dominance in polls of the Republican primary and the reluctance of most of his G.O.P. rivals to attack him have led most Democrats to conclude that Wednesday\u2019s debate, along with much of the primary, are an academic exercise being held before next year\u2019s Trump-Biden rematch.<\/p>\n
\u201c<\/strong>I was just going to watch it for comic relief,\u201d said Representative Jasmine Crockett, a Texas Democrat. \u201cThis is done. We are going to have Trump versus Biden 2.0. That\u2019s what\u2019s about to happen. Anyone who is kidding themselves into believing that they have a shot is just delusional.\u201d<\/p>\n And for the cast of candidates who barely qualified for the Republican stage, hoping that a standout debate performance would propel them to relevance \u2014 a TV show, a future cabinet post or maybe a campaign for some other office \u2014 a former presidential long shot had a piece of advice.<\/p>\n \u201cLearn how to count to 200,\u201d said Representative Eric Swalwell of California, who, many people may have forgotten, ran for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2020. \u201cBecause that\u2019s about the amount of seconds that you\u2019re going to have to speak.\u201d<\/p>\n